I wonder if this helps explains why polling has been getting worse than usual since 2016. (In relation to presidential polling (midterm polling has been historically accurate).

Chart Source, Axios

  • ReallyActuallyFrankenstein@lemmynsfw.com
    link
    fedilink
    English
    arrow-up
    15
    ·
    1 year ago

    Voters across the political spectrum said they’ve lied about their voting: 27% of Democrats acknowledged it, while 24% of Republicans and 20% of independents did so. The survey didn’t ask exactly how, why or to whom they’d lied.

    This is what I was looking for. It’s not reliable data about which direction it may be influencing polling, but if a self-identified “democrat” is lying, presumably it is to conservative family or friends about conservative support (and vice versa). This would mean there is slightly more “shy” democrats than republicans, but with a very large “independent” black box.

  • t3rmit3@beehaw.org
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    12
    ·
    1 year ago

    I found out my brother has been a Trumper since 2016, and keeps it secret from his friends, who he knows would not be okay with it. Not so much “shy”, as “knows he’s an asshole, but literally only cares about religion”. He’s just a misogynist, is the reality.

  • Affidavit@lemm.ee
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    6
    ·
    1 year ago

    I wonder how many of these were people who voted for Trump in 2016 and now feel shame/embarrassment after seeing the entailing colossal clusterfuck they were partially responsible for.

    • FundMECFS@lemmy.blahaj.zoneOP
      link
      fedilink
      arrow-up
      10
      ·
      1 year ago

      That’s likely a really low percentage unfortunately.

      I think the estimates are only 2-4% of Trump 2016 voters voted Biden 2020.

      But there definitely is something to the “shy Trump voter” theory.