please post any subsequent updates here unless they’re huge happenings. i just woke up and half our news front page is updates which is nice but also A Lot and most of these don’t have to be their own thread
Well that was… weird.
I saw several alleged videos of russian frontline units pledging their support for Prigozhin. Combine that with how little resistance wagner faced and Putin might have realized how weak his position is and given in to replacing MOD staff. Not a good look the same day he declared Prigozhin a traitor and promised punishment.
Trading the long-term stability for the short-term. Because now every aspiring russian warlord know that if you don’t like something about the state, all you need is just a big enough private army to bully the kremlin, lol.
I mean, what would Wagner do once they reach Moscow? Sit at Putins desk and start giving orders? No one would listen, they’d all still take orders from Putin sitting in St Petersburg or just quit an go home and wait it out.
I imagine they would take over the city, and completely destabilize Russia.
It doesn’t matter if nobody wants to listen to you if you become the local law enforcement.
Probably just re-enact Jan 6 but Russian for the propaganda points, then skedaddling before the hammer comes down.
I don’t know why anyone is taking any of this seriously. For all we know, this was done to lure Ukraine into following them into Russia to fall into a set trap, or theater or withdraw and resupply without looking weak. It is odd that it looks like Putin had weakness, but they can always say that’s what it was later and the propaganda will work like it always does.
Do you really think Ukraine has an interest in following them into Russia? If I was them I would just want to take back Ukraine and secure the borders.
They currently have an operation attacking into Russia’s boarder…
Only if you accept Russia’s description of where the border is. The border as defined by every other country in the entire world says Ukraine is still in their own territory.
There have been some Ukrainian sympathisers setting off bombs/shooting down aircraft/etc inside Russian territory - but those aren’t Ukranian soldiers and they’re pretty generally just a few random/nonconsequential attacks and don’t show any signs of being linked to any “Operation”. The front line of the battlefield is nowhere near the border.
No, it’s documented and reported by Ukraine and US as they counterattacked on Russian soil and it was an issue because of the US supplying weapons to them: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/05/29/an-increasing-number-of-ukrainian-attacks-on-russian-soil-are-upsetting-the-united-states-and-kyiv-s-allies_6028312_4.html
I think you watch to many movies real life isn’t that well planned most likely he got mad launched an ill planned invasion then made a deal with putin when both realized they could lose everything fighting each other
Now hearing from Al Jazeera news and NYT that Prigozhin has agreed to order his Wagner troops back to their bases. What in the hell is going on?
Just saw on the news that Wagner is turning around after Lukashenko got involved?
I saw that as well. Idk, it just seems really unlikely to just back down from a coup because Belarus gets involved…
This feels like wrestling “Kayfabe.” Like, was this just some weird feint by Russia? Try to bait Ukraine into doing something? This would be a new level of gaslighting if so…
So strange.
It could also be a way to shake out any elements of the Russian military or other paramilitary groups that are looking for ways to get out of Ukraine. Like, maybe the attacks on Wagner coming from the Russian army are rogue elements where Wagner is obviously the most effective target for friendly fire.
This has been months in the making. From what I can tell it’s a mix of Russian incompitence in the war effort and the Kremlins attempts to control more of Wagner. I have no idea where this is going or what either side has in mind but it’s definetly motivated by Wagner seeing the Kremlin itself as being the thing holding the war effort back.
Also didnt Lulashenko just jet over to Turkey?
Belarus is more likely to side with Wagner over Lukashenko. That clown will be gone the second Putin is.
Beau has three videos out on it already. He’s really good for context on military things.
Beau the human trafficking CIA asset? Nah thanks.
Just woke up, read the Post’s feed, then The Economist’s coverage, and I can safely say I have no idea what’s happening. Suffice to say, I’m not grabbing popcorn yet.
Civil war broke out, some dude close to Putin offended Putin and Putin bombed his friend, friend didn’t like and started a coupe, civil joined in and thus making it a civil war. Putin friends is a military dude that still want to invade Ukraina after the civil war.
This is what my understanding is, someone please correct me.
If Moscow stations start playing this, it’s a probable sign that the Coup is legitimate and the transition has started. Bonkers to think think that in our lifetime we’d see the collapse of a nuclear power. Even if Putin and his government survive this Coup, I don’t think he’ll have any political capital left to lead. By 8:00pm EDT, we’ll have a pretty good idea who’s left standing.
There’s something up. Both putin and Wagners head aren’t stupid.
I feel it’s a plan to justify future actions.
Yes, Poutine highly control GRU with an iron glove, and Wagner is controlled by GRU. It’s a masquerade to kick choigou and guerassimov because they are bad.
Wagner opened fire on Russian forces. Shot down helicopters and apparently at least one transport plane. That’s a lot for just playacting. No pretense would be needed to replace a general in wartime. It’s a common occurrence throughout history, and Putin wouldn’t need an excuse either way, since he answers to no one in the Russian government. As to the statement that neither Putin nor Prigozhin are stupid… Well this entire conflict has provided an enormous amount of evidence to the contrary.
It makes both Putin and Prigozhin look bad though. Would they go through this damage to their reputations and prospects just for that? And couldn’t Putin just have fired those guys without going through some elaborate pantomime first?
Putin benefited from:
- Showed that the largest military group couldn’t complete a coup
- No longer need to justify the damage Wagner group done
- Shows Russian that he prefer to negotiate rather than bloodshed
- Shows international theatre that Russian troops are loyal, peaceful, and follow orders
- Identified disloyal government officials who sided with Wagner if any
And the list goes on
Wagner head got out of it and terrorisim accusations in the future
I’m still thinking that it’s not over. Moscow still on high alert.
- Showed that the largest military group couldn’t complete a coup
This showed that they wouldn’t, at least under these circumstances, not that they couldn’t.
I agree with all other points though.
I think this is legitimately the commander of the most elite force being fed up that his men are dying in a losing war and his recommendations falling on deaf ears. His “I need ammo” video from a few weeks ago certainly wasn’t part of some grand masquerade either, the city’s supply lines were just destroyed by Ukrainian artillery.
He’s not demanding Putin out, he’s demanding changes in military leadership to properly supply and command the war forces. He can’t just leave the war at this point, so he had to do something drastic otherwise most of his forces will end up as casualties. It also gives him some setup to actually leave the war if his demands aren’t met.
All of this “highly controlled” talk has gotten a little hyperbolic given recent events. I think there’s serious reason to think Putin has an at least somewhat loose control of everything except the oligarchs and GRU. He absolutely has the wealth and kompromat that is claimed and there’s no question he’s had several oligarchs assassinated, but beyond that it appears his control and oversight is relatively weak. Probably because competent people are dangerous to give too much power to. Look at Prigozhin, he’s far from being capable of knocking Putin down but he’s still starting to make demands.
What happens when you give barely competent and corrupt people the majority of the military leadership roles? Ukraine - the best equipped troops were sent in first but the plan barely went beyond that and went completely tits up once those forces got wiped out. They keep outrunning the supply lines of what little they do have. Morale is in free fall.
I don’t think Putin is close to getting ousted, but for the same reason Russia can’t be more than a barely functional country. There just aren’t enough competent people in powerful positions that he trusts/can control to run a country.
Thanks for your insight :)
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I think I read Wagner forces number about 25,000? Can anyone contextualize how big a headache this will be for Russia?
Some live updates:
https://meduza.io/en/live/2023/06/23/yevgeny-prigozhin-s-coup
Trying to constantly remind myself that none of us are immune to propaganda, and that it would be really easy for this scenario to be misrepresented as a clean-sweep against the Russian military. Wagner’s def gonna cause serious problems but I’d frankly be shocked if this ended with a successful coup or any meaningful change
Even if they win, this dude is a literal war monger fascist. Not better or worse than Putin.
