I really hate reportage like this. Every government, even seemingly incompetent ones like the current crop in the UK, have hundreds or thousands of contingency plans for things of wildly varying likelihood. This is just one of those things.
This is just as informative as those articles that say eating sugar triggers the same receptors as cocaine. Yes it’s true, but there aren’t that many reward mechanisms in the brain, so a lot of shit hits those same receptors.
It’s data and it’s true, but it’s not useful information.
We have a plan to invade literally every country and for if that country invades us that is updated regularly. I always found that kind of funny but it isn’t shocking.
It’s like saying the police is preparing for thieves robbing the bank or the fire department preparing for a wildfire. It’s part of their job and it would be stranger not to have a contingency plan.
Consider the source. Pretty sure this is propaganda.
In their place i would rather prepare for scenario of unexpected collapse of United Kingdom.
To be fair, it’s not exactly an unexpected scenario.
I would even say, desired.
The world will be a better place when British regime falls, no question about that.
Implying that there is a current regime.
Correct, it’s a regime that bans public protest and tortures journalists. If one of the designated enemies was caught doing what UK is doing then you’d wast no time calling it a regime.
Very unlikely scenario. Expected collapse on the other hand…
Who says they have not prepared for that?
Considering their preparations for other things, like brexit or covid i would say LOL.
UK politicians never really seem prepared for anything tbh
It was made into a film called Children of Men.
Great movie and accurately depicts brexit
As they mention in the article they anticipated a much slower collapse and likely prepared for that. But at the rate it’s currently going, it’s quite astounding. The fragmentation and internal strife in Russia are certainly not over.
I did read one article that made a reference to this more being an “end of the beginning” rather than the “beginning of the end”. Which I agree with. It hasn’t collapsed the federation overnight, but it’s certainly weakened it a hell of a lot.
If you’re preparing for it, is it really that “unexpected”…?
Pravda really fell off
My grandpa was Ukrainian but considered himself Russian and worshipped Putin. I really wonder how this would have affected him. I honestly am partly glad he isn’t alive. It would really shake him.
He thought of Putin as the person who saved Russians from the fall of the USSR. Putin has done a lot lately to undermine the untarnishable image he had with certain kinds of people.
I really miss my grandpa now. He introduced me to a lot of new concepts and though his ideas were wrong they weren’t out dated or stupid.
I never would have done the things I’ve done if not for my grandpa and how his ideas shaped me.
Plan for a possible possible eventuality? That’ll be a first.
I assume there was a plan that Cameron got rid of because reasons and now they can’t find the PDF so they’ll have to do it again.
Someone couldn’t rotate it so they just deleted it and pretended it never came.
Regardless of the article, using the term “unexpected” is kind of naive at this point.
I suppose it’s unexpected because Putin would rather bomb his own citizens than allow a change of status quo.
Aw shit here we go again
I know mexico is really worried…so they drink tequila and move on.
so they drink tequila and move on
based
I sincerely do not understand why…
Maybe it’s your attitude and insulting manner? None of your arguments required your comments about “liberals”. Given those, it’s disingenuous to attribute the downvotes to your “facts”.
Unexpected? I thought everyone was already expecting
UK should consider its own survival, instead of Russia’s, which is handling entire NATO’s microcosm pretty well.
Preparing for disasters is part of a county’s survival. What are you even talking about?
When the disaster is about to happen in your own country, you should take care of yourself first.
I wouldn’t hold your breath. The UK has had a stable political system longer than most countries have existed, and has weathered much worse situations than now.
Russia’s got form for instability. 3 revolutions in the 20th century, the collapse of the Soviet Union, a civil war, numerous wars with neighbours, 4 or 5 attempted coups that I can think of off the top of my head, plus the issues Russia usually has when transferring leadership. A new coup attempt isn’t a good sign.
UK has had a stable political system longer than most countries have existed
When UK empire has been the biggest imperialist leech in human history, and leeched India (the world’s richest country back then) for 2 centuries, they carry a lot of money thanks to that. However, their empire fell long ago, and Brexit has been a joke, as has been Elizabeth Truss’ PM tenure to the point nobody even knew she was PM.
I have no idea why you are trying to sell the idea of UK being more stable than Russia, a country with the strongest military, a supplier of gas and oil, and one that strengthened itself after all of NATO sanctioned them. Not to mention having strong relations with India and China at the same time.
Empire is irrelevant here, as it had very little bearing on the domestic political situation in the UK. Virtually all the British Empire became independent over just a few decades, at the same time that mass de-industrialisation happened domestically. Yet during this period elections still happened in the UK, power changed hands smoothly multiple times, there were no revolutions or coups, and even the IRA was at most an irritant. Despite the loss of empire and the rapid change in the workforce and makeup of the economic output of the UK, it still paid its bills, maintained a nuclear deterrent, integrated a large influx of ex-Empire immigrants, pioneered socialised healthcare in the West, and managed to grow its domestic economy at a reasonable rate almost all the way through. You’d be hard pushed to find another country that was as stable, given the specific challenges over that period.
Brexit was a mistake, and recent governments have been terrible, but don’t delude yourself into thinking those are existential crises for the UK. The government will get replaced without much fuss, the UK will patch up its relationship with the EU even if it doesn’t rejoin, and the wheels will keep turning.
Man the Tankies are even more annoying here on Lemmy…
Ok eurochud
Oh boy, Russian shills on Lemmy.
Not a good look.
After the events that just strengthened it? Absurd. Anything to avoid actually feeding people, addressing the 33% of children currently in poverty or the constantly declining living standards we have I suppose.
EDIT: God this place has gone south since all the redditors came over.
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When a coup fails, it strengthens the existing state. It has told everyone that might rebel that there is too much support in the existing state for it to succeed. See Erdogan doing it intentionally in Turkey to strengthen and consolidate his power if you want another example of this.
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I live in the UK. This is absolutely a fucking waste of our time and energy. Nobody gives a damn about this when a third of children in the country live in poverty and cost of living is through the roof. It is entirely a distraction because Brexit, austerity and successive neoliberal governments have systematically gutted the country. Anything to distract from the fact half the country keeps going on strike or actually paying people more.
The manner in which a coup is stopped makes all the difference. It only enhances the position of the government if the government is seen to deal with the coup attempt promptly and effectively. If the government is not seen to deal with it effectively, then even if the coup is ultimately unsuccessful, it undermines the government.
In this case, Putin was not seen to deal with the coup effectively. Wagner was able to secure the Southern Military District headquarters - the main operational HQ of the war in Ukraine - in Rostov-on-Don with essentially no opposition, then drive most of the way to Moscow with only minor skirmishes along the way. If we believe the widely-disseminated reports, then seven Russian military aircraft were lost to Wagner actions, but only one Wagner truck was lost in return. Putin was not seen or heard from for a long time, and reports surfaced that he had flown to St. Petersburg, and when he did appear, his message was not particularly decisive. When the coup was abandoned, it was done not through force, or by Putin publicly facing down Wagner like Yeltsin did in 1991. It was abandoned due to some back-room deal, brokered by Lukashenko of all people, the details of which have not been made public.
The Russian government’s internal security apparatus appears incompetent because it did not consider Wagner a threat, even though Prigozhin had been telegraphing his intentions for days (and probably planning it for months). The Russian military appears weak and overstretched, because it could not protect its operational HQ by force. Putin appears weak because he disappeared at the crucial moments, and large parts of Russia appeared sympathetic to Prigozhin even if they weren’t prepared to directly take part. The image of Putin being the supreme ruler in charge of everything looks pretty suspect at this point, and Russians know it because most of the events happened live on Russian state TV.
Putin has a long history of wriggling out of difficult situations, and he might still pull things out of the bag, but I think this is the beginning of the end for him.
The Russian government’s internal security apparatus appears incompetent because it did not consider Wagner a threat, even though Prigozhin had been telegraphing his intentions for days (and probably planning it for months). The Russian military appears weak and overstretched, because it could not protect its operational HQ by force. Putin appears weak because he disappeared at the crucial moments, and large parts of Russia appeared sympathetic to Prigozhin even if they weren’t prepared to directly take part. The image of Putin being the supreme ruler in charge of everything looks pretty suspect at this point, and Russians know it because most of the events happened live on Russian state TV.
This is all “appears” “appears” “appears”. You are hung up on appearances. You seem to think that if they just appear a certain way to people then that will magically change the balances of factional power in the country.
Liberals have this bizarre idea about where power comes from. You all seem to believe that the population of the country has power, that if the government simply appears weak then it will magically result in the population doing… Something… And then the government will be overthrown and the war will be won!
Power is derived by those in hierarchical positions in a country to command various things within their positions to occur. And when enough people all align alongside one another and command things to happen together, if the related organisations follow those commands, they hold power.
I acknowledge in my other comments that this is embarrassing (which is quite a similar interpretation to you saying it hurts appearances). But the bottom line is how it affects power in the country. What factions exist and who those factions are aligning themselves behind.
This attempt did not result in anything like a weakening of the state or Putin. It consolidated all the sources of power in the country behind Putin, into statements of support and actions that back it up.
Putin has a long history of wriggling out of difficult situations, and he might still pull things out of the bag, but I think this is the beginning of the end for him.
By what mechanism?
By what mechanism?
Putin is up for re-election in March 2024. Presidential term limits may have been removed in 2020, but he still needs to go back to the polls. If he cannot be sure of a resounding victory, there’s a good chance he will retire rather than seek re-election. He may try to declare martial law and suspend the constitution, but his political capital to do that is a lot more meagre than it was in February 2022. More than any other election since he was first elected in 2000, he will need real support from his political base, and I’m no longer convinced he will get it.
Prigozhin is now in a pretty good position to be kingmaker, even if he won’t or can’t be a presidential candidate himself.
Of course everyone with any loyalty to the state, or with any future political ambitions of their own has come out in support - at least publicly - of the status quo. To do otherwise would be political suicide. But that doesn’t mean they actually support Putin privately.
You’re expecting the main opposition - the communist party - to beat him then? Zyuganov?
If that fantasy happened it would split the communist party between the half that is controlled opposition who would see it as “the wrong time” for it to happen and the half who truly want socialist power again. The election would then be redone with a 3 way split between the two factions and Navalny’s fascist coalition supported by the euro liberals.
I mean, I would want that outcome as it would result in a real left communist opposition emerging but I think it’s incredibly unrealistic. Not to mention that you’re expecting the population to boot a leader during the middle of a war? I am not sure how often that has happened, populations understand you keep the same leader during wartime. You would need the population to become against the war for that to occur and uhhh I hate to break it to you but absolutely the support the war and it would take a huge change in the frontline situation to change that - one that I do not think is coming judging by the failures of the counter offensive so far.
I think any serious presidential competitor has yet to emerge - none of the Communist candidates, or Navalny, are credible IMO. 9 months is plenty of time to make a campaign happen though.
It’s at least as likely that, off the back of the poor performance in the war, and especially the dismal reaction to the Wagner affair, that Putin will be simply “encouraged” behind the scenes to retire rather than run again, and United Russia will put forward some kind of “interim” candidate who will probably win.
FWIW if you want examples of leadership changes during a war, how about Neville Chamberlain? Or the two revolutions in Russia itself in 1917?
I think any serious presidential competitor has yet to emerge - none of the Communist candidates, or Navalny, are credible IMO. 9 months is plenty of time to make a campaign happen though.
I don’t think this is realistic. You’re asking for sweeping massive electoral pattern changes that won’t happen without a massive crisis functioning as a catalyst. I can’t see a source for such a crisis on the horizon though, the frontline isn’t going to change while the economic sanctions were resoundingly defeated and hurt we european residents significantly more than Russians.
FWIW if you want examples of leadership changes during a war, how about Neville Chamberlain?
Chamberlain was not changed by an election of the population of the UK, he was changed by Conservative party infighting leading to the 1922 committee demanding his resignation in a “do it or we’ll do it for you” ultimatum, as they have always done. Chamberlain resigned his position as leader of the Conservative party and Churchill took it.
There was no election in the UK between the years of 1935 and 1945.
Or the two revolutions in Russia itself in 1917?
Generated by an unpopular war in a series of wars that the tsar repeatedly got people killed in for his vanity. This is not an unpopular war though and there is no anti-war movement, it is supported by every political faction of the country. Even the euro liberals don’t openly state their opposition and that’s not because they would disappear (they wouldn’t) but because it would be wildly unpopular and harm their political growth, they are forced into silence through the conditions that currently exist.
that Putin will be simply “encouraged” behind the scenes to retire rather than run again
This requires factional fighting, which is non-existent at this time. He has broad across the spectrum support both in his party and in opposition groups because they all see him as ushering in a multi-polar world, which is extremely beneficial to the interests of every faction that exists. I still do not see where you think the factionalism exists for this to happen. Who? Why? What faction is going to push him out and for what purpose? With everyone wanting to see the completion of this project there’s no faction internally to interrupt it.
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