This is a guy who was known to hire body doubles and he had numerous passports.
This is a guy who humiliated Putin 2 month ago with his protest (attempted coup ? ) to Moscow. Considering how Putin treats his opponent it’s crazy that he survived that long.
yes it could be a body double and he is hiding on the same island as Elvis, but let’s believe the simplest hypothesis
it would be mighty embarrassing for Russia if he were to show up alive somewhere now, so this time I’ll believe them. they had every reason to kill him as publicly as they apparently have
Probably exactly what has been reported. Putin waited for things to settle, weakened Wagner troops by taking their weapons and splitting their numbers, then they killed leadership. Occam’s razor certainly points to this.
But, of course, the way it was done certainly leaves the door open for conspiracies.
Even if he’s not dead, his mercenaries believe that he is. If they’re getting paid, they’ll do what leadership tells them. If not, they won’t. Simple as, he’s not an elected leader, his death just means his company has shit to figure out, but his non-death means shit will keep going as it was.
Not necessarily. The mercenaries are spreading a lot of these conspiracies through Telegram. I don’t have polling available, so idk how many of them think he’s alive.
Wagner is not a PMC and wagnerites not real mercenaries. Most of them are ultra-nationalists and that’s their primary motivation to fight. There are some weird Nazi/cult elements. Prigozhin has built up that cult, he’s not easily replaceable.
While certainly would be Putin’s style, I would’ve expected them to wait until BRICS summit was over given that I doubt they wanted to remind everybody of the whole mutiny business.
I think it’s extremely unlikely that he’s not dead. If Prigozhin were to surface elsewhere in the world (e.g. Africa), Putin would be even more of a laughing stock. Putin simply wouldn’t risk anything less than absolute certainty.
However, I doubt that Prigozhin was alive when the plane took off; most likely Utkin and Chekalov were dead as well. Best guess is that the three were killed the night before.
I doubt that Prighozin was alive when the plane took off
Personally, this is where my own Occam’s Razor points to. I find the whole thing to be rather like a circus, the death is being shown off to the world. It makes no sense that the plane would be going where it was and it makes no sense that Putin would confirm a death that didn’t happen, so death-faking also seems off the books.
Out of all possibilities, the “plane didn’t even have the corpse, but Prigoman is already a corpse somewhere no one will ever find it” makes the most sense. Perhaps a plane about to be shot down IS the best place to leave it if the goal is no one finding it, but why leave it to chance? Incinerate the corpse and spread the ashes, and then you can do whatever theatrics you want.
We’ve all got to trust our inner Occam’s Razor
I’m assuming Prigozhin got arrogant and thought Putin wouldn’t touch him. And Putin decided that the proximity warhead on an S-200 missile blowing an aircraft apart wasn’t technically “touching”.
Intelligence has confirmed it wasn’t a missile strike, from my understanding. Seems like an engine exploded, probably tampering.
I’ll admit, I’ve not been following the story closely. So, I’ll take your word on the lack of a missile. But ya, I’d still bet on this being Putin eliminating an enemy in some way.
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I think sabotage pretty much covers the “when cared for properly/failsafe” thing, though.
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Oh I didn’t mean sabotage as in “I didn’t QA the abradable shroud installation correctly, oops.”
I meant like “Nice, this fat brick of C-4 fits perfectly next to the generator compartment.”
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Nice! One of life’s greatest pleasures.
Oh, of course it wasn’t an accident
Probably got murdered.
Putin waited patiently that all the wagner’s guys were in the same plane to make a strike. They were enough stupid to take offer him such a good opportunity. Wagner’s troops were already in difficulties now putins has cuts the heads.
He was also a liability for Putin. The guy wouldn’t take 2 months of vacation in Belarus, I doubt he would manage to stay hidden with a fake identity.
Yeah well I wouldn’t take 2 months of vacation in Belarus either
Two body doubles would have been needed, the #2 in command was also onboard. I think he’s really dead.
This guy has a good explanation https://mastodon.social/users/ChrisO_wiki/statuses/110962681044644179
British royal family: There’s a reason you’ll never find more than one of us on a plane at the same time.
Russian officials: Hold my vodka!
Putin’s people got to him somehow, it was inevitable.
I think he got scared and figured making his death seem as real as possible was a better alternative than not. The best way to run from your enemy is to make him think he already killed you, because then they stop looking. He wasn’t a stupid man and was known to be so paranoid he had all those body doubles and stuff like you said. It wouldn’t surprise me if he got unalived but IMO he wanted out from under Putins gaze.
