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Cake day: July 11th, 2023

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  • Rough math involved: production of a new EV results in between 8-15 tonnes of CO2 emissions, depending on the size of the batteries and vehicle trim.

    But let’s aim for somewhere in the middle and take ~12 tonnes as a yardstick.

    ~12 tonnes of CO2 emissions equates to roughly 1,350 gallons of fuel.

    Depending of fuel efficiency, this would equate to between 20k~45k miles.

    Feel free to double-check my math in case I did anything wrong, but it does validate that most of these „facts” around EVs are likely FUD spread by fossil fuel aligned sources.

    ETA: initially forgot to include CO2 emissions from electricity generation - but this varies wildly based on source (nuclear, hydro & renewables at 0 etc.)


  • Because the outcome of a dice roll is an independent event (ie. the outcome of any given event does not impact subsequent events), it doesn’t matter if you said only your 2nd/3rd/4th etc. roll counted. Every roll has a 1/20 chance of rolling a 1 on a D20 die.

    Consider this thought experiment, there are ~60.5m people, each rolling a 6-sided die. Only the people who roll a 6 can continue to the next round, and the game continues until there is only 1 winner.

    After the first roll, only ~10m people remain in the game. After the second roll, ~1.7m people remain After the third roll, ~280K After the fourth, ~46.5K 5th, ~7.8K 6th, ~1.3K 7th, ~216 8th, ~36 9th, ~6 After the 10th and final roll, there should only be ~1 player remaining.

    So even though initially there is only a 1-in-65m chance of rolling 10 6s back-to-back initially, each attempt still has a 1/6 chance of succeeding. By the time we get down to the final six contestants, they have each rolled a 6 nine times in a row - yet their chances of rolling it another time is still 1/6.


  • Weirdly enough, it’s just the way probability works.

    Once something stops being a possibility, and becomes a fact (ie. dice are rolled, numbers known) - future probability is no longer affected (assuming independent events like die rolls).

    e.g. you have a 1/400 chance of rolling two 1s on a D20 back-to-back. But if your first roll is a 1, you’re back down to the standard 1/20 chance of doing it again - because one of the conditions has already been met.